Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +285 W&M -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +3 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -6.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -4.7 (+1.7) | 158.1 (+20.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -4.4 (+1.4) | 157.9 (+21.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -4.4 (+1.4) | 155.5 (+23.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -4.5 (+1.5) | 156.4 (+22.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | W&M 97 – 89 NCAT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | W&M 81 – 78 NCAT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | W&M 79 – 62 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NCAT 76 – 69 W&M |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NCAT 90 – 86 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#265) | 2.7 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#265) | 0.20 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#272) | 0.39 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#280) | 0.529 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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