Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | W&M -900 NCAT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -12.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -10.4 (-7.4) | 160.4 (-1.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -10.8 (-7.8) | 160.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -11.2 (-8.2) | 159.2 (-0.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -12.3 (-9.3) | 160.2 (-1.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | W&M 91 – 88 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2026 | W&M 97 – 89 NCAT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | W&M 79 – 62 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NCAT 76 – 69 W&M |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NCAT 90 – 86 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#182) | -9.8 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#186) | -2.54 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#154) | -3.05 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#186) | 0.393 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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