Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +110 W&M -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -1.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.7 (+6.3) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.2 (+5.8) | 147.1 (-2.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -1.3 (+5.7) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -1.3 (+5.7) | 147.2 (-2.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | W&M 91 – 88 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2026 | W&M 97 – 89 NCAT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | W&M 81 – 78 NCAT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | W&M 79 – 62 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NCAT 90 – 86 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#335) | -9.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#306) | -1.99 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#312) | -2.37 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#295) | 0.383 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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