Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | W&M -110 NCAT +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +4 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -3.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -1.0 (-5.0) | 139.6 (+36.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -1.6 (-5.6) | 140.5 (+35.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -1.9 (-5.9) | 139.7 (+36.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -1.8 (-5.8) | 140.2 (+35.8) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | W&M 91 – 88 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2026 | W&M 97 – 89 NCAT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | W&M 81 – 78 NCAT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | W&M 79 – 62 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NCAT 76 – 69 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#294) | -6.4 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#239) | -0.91 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#269) | -1.21 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#204) | 0.464 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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