Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +210 W&M -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +17 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -3.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -2.8 (-14.2) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -2.7 (-14.3) | 137.2 (+3.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -2.4 (-14.6) | 137.6 (+3.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -3.0 (-14.0) | 137.2 (+3.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | W&M 91 – 88 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2026 | W&M 97 – 89 NCAT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | W&M 81 – 78 NCAT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | NCAT 76 – 69 W&M |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NCAT 90 – 86 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#344) | -9.4 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#324) | -2.03 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#332) | -2.30 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#309) | 0.397 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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