Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -135 BCU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -1.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -1.6 (-4.6) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.4 (-3.4) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.1 (-3.1) | 151.4 (+9.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -0.1 (-3.1) | 153.7 (+7.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BCU 67 – 61 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-12 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#295) | -6.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#273) | -0.40 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#265) | -0.57 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#277) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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