Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -275 BCU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -8.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.9 (-11.9) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -6.9 (-12.9) | 138.6 (-10.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.4 (-12.4) | 140.0 (-12.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -6.1 (-12.1) | 139.5 (-11.5) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#259) | -9.9 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#171) | -1.18 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#212) | -1.52 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.432 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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