Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BCU +120 SOU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +1 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -0.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -0.5 (+1.5) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -1.7 (+2.7) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.7 (+1.7) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.5 (+1.5) | 140.4 (-1.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BCU 67 – 61 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-12 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#276) | -3.5 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#253) | -0.12 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#262) | -0.13 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#231) | 0.507 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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