Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -250 BCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -4.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.4 (-18.4) | 133.9 (-2.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.5 (-17.5) | 133.6 (-2.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.9 (-17.9) | 132.4 (-1.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -1.7 (-16.7) | 135.0 (-4.0) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BCU 67 – 61 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#271) | -9.7 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#212) | -1.01 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#245) | -1.38 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#165) | 0.450 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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