Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | BCU -185 SOU +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | BCU -4.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -4.4 (-8.4) | 157.6 (-7.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -2.4 (-6.4) | 157.2 (-7.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -4.3 (-8.3) | 154.5 (-4.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -3.3 (-7.3) | 155.8 (-5.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BCU 67 – 61 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#298) | -9.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#219) | -2.28 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#246) | -3.25 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.391 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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