Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -265 BCU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +16 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -4.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.2 (+12.8) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -2.9 (+13.1) | 134.4 (-12.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -2.6 (+13.4) | 135.5 (-13.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.7 (+13.3) | 135.9 (-13.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BCU 67 – 61 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-2 |
| Away | 9-10 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#209) | -3.5 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#186) | -0.49 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#209) | -0.67 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.496 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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