Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -310 SAC +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -11.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -11.7 (+9.3) | 153.9 (-10.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.6 (+10.4) | 153.9 (-10.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -10.4 (+10.6) | 152.0 (-9.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -10.1 (+10.9) | 152.0 (-9.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SAC 66 – 63 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 83.6 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#137) | -6.2 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#183) | -1.37 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#160) | -1.50 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#184) | 0.426 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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