Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -700 SAC +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -13.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.1 (+1.9) | 133.3 (-5.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -9.7 (+2.3) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -10.1 (+1.9) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -9.8 (+2.2) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SAC 66 – 63 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-11 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#180) | -11.5 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#249) | -2.47 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#219) | -3.45 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#271) | 0.366 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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