Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -213 SAC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -4.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.5 (-1.5) | 136.7 (+8.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.3 (-1.3) | 136.2 (+8.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.8 (-0.8) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.8 (-0.8) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SAC 66 – 63 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#234) | -8.7 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#222) | -1.33 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#214) | -1.74 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#250) | 0.432 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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