Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SAC +170 MTST -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.0 (+9.0) | 151.3 (+11.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.8 (+9.8) | 151.5 (+11.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -5.9 (+8.9) | 148.6 (+14.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.0 (+9.0) | 148.8 (+14.2) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SAC 66 – 63 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-16 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#281) | 2.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#303) | 0.16 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#298) | 0.34 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#330) | 0.509 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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