Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SAC +215 MTST -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +27 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -6.2 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.5 (-20.5) | 134.0 (+13.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.1 (-20.9) | 132.4 (+14.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -5.3 (-21.7) | 133.3 (+13.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.8 (-21.2) | 134.5 (+12.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SAC 66 – 63 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#335) | -2.0 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#350) | -0.84 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#353) | -0.74 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#356) | 0.457 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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