Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -300 SAC +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -8.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.6 (-10.6) | 130.4 (-1.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.8 (-9.8) | 131.3 (-2.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.8 (-10.8) | 133.5 (-4.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.8 (-9.8) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#257) | -10.2 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#241) | -1.99 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#240) | -2.58 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#258) | 0.401 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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