Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -135 TOL +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +12 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -0.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -0.7 (-12.7) | 151.2 (-5.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -0.2 (-12.2) | 151.7 (-5.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -0.5 (-12.5) | 155.0 (-9.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -0.4 (-12.4) | 154.3 (-8.3) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TOL 85 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#215) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#178) | 0.05 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#182) | 0.18 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#137) | 0.531 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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