Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -135 OHIO +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +16 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -4.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.2 (+12.8) | 150.2 (+35.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.3 (+12.7) | 153.7 (+32.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.9 (+13.1) | 154.0 (+32.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.9 (+13.1) | 152.5 (+33.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TOL 85 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#177) | -1.7 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#152) | 0.45 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#140) | 0.42 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#113) | 0.543 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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