Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -225 OHIO +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.6 (-3.6) | 159.9 (+8.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.3 (-4.3) | 159.0 (+9.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -6.6 (-4.6) | 160.0 (+8.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.2 (-4.2) | 160.8 (+7.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#133) | -0.7 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#116) | -0.40 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#132) | -0.40 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#105) | 0.470 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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