Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -175 TOL +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +3 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -5.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -5.1 (-8.1) | 159.7 (+9.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | OHIO -4.3 (-7.3) | 159.3 (+9.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | OHIO -4.8 (-7.8) | 159.6 (+9.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -4.8 (-7.8) | 160.7 (+8.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TOL 85 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | -1.8 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#163) | 0.30 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#180) | -0.11 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#138) | 0.531 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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