Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | TOL +100 OHIO -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +14 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -1.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -0.4 (+14.4) | 159.8 (+18.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -0.2 (+13.8) | 157.1 (+20.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -0.3 (+14.3) | 159.8 (+18.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -0.8 (+14.8) | 159.8 (+18.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TOL 85 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#249) | -0.6 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#171) | -0.16 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#200) | -0.35 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#145) | 0.509 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.