Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | TOL +120 OHIO -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -3.6 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -2.2 (+7.2) | 159.2 (+15.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -1.8 (+6.8) | 155.2 (+19.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -2.3 (+7.3) | 158.4 (+16.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -2.5 (+7.5) | 159.0 (+16.0) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TOL 85 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#244) | -1.1 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#168) | -0.24 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#191) | -0.45 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#134) | 0.505 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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