I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Missouri Valley Conference · Ford Center · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread VAL -5.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money EVAN +195 / VAL -238
Model Predictions
Spread Total EVAN win
Actual EVAN +1 159 Won
Massey VAL -6.4 (+7.4)
Massey Totals 138.8 (+20.2)
Bradley-Terry 20%
Weighted B-T 17%
Efficiency Plus ML VAL -5.8 (+6.8) 139.0 (+20.0) 26%
Baseline Tuned ML VAL -6.5 (+7.5) 138.0 (+21.0) 23%
Baseline ML VAL -6.3 (+7.3) 139.1 (+19.9) 23%
Baseline Plus ML VAL -6.2 (+7.2) 140.1 (+18.9) 26%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 VAL 7063 EVAN
Feb 17, 2025 EVAN 7969 VAL
Jan 25, 2025 EVAN 7868 VAL
Feb 3, 2024 EVAN 6362 VAL
Jan 18, 2024 EVAN 7875 VAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EVAN VAL
Overall 7-25 18-15
Conference 3-17 11-9
Home 5-10 13-4
Away 1-12 4-10
Neutral 1-3 1-1
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 65.8 71.2
Avg Pts Against 78.3 71.9
Massey -8.9 (#299) 0.5 (#158)
Bradley-Terry -1.70 (#318) 0.22 (#145)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.97 (#306) 0.23 (#148)
RPI 0.435 (#307) 0.492 (#203)
Shooting & Four Factors EVAN VAL
FG% 42.3% 41.5%
3PT% 31.6% 33.5%
REB / G 30.2 36.1
OREB / G 7.6 12.1
AST / TO 0.94 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.1% 47.6%
TOV% 19.4% 15.7%
ORB% 22.2% 32.8%
FT Rate 21.1% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.7% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 17.0%
DRB% 69.5% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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