Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -340 EVAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -8.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -6.4 (-16.4) | 139.4 (+6.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -5.8 (-15.8) | 138.9 (+7.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -6.1 (-16.1) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -6.1 (-16.1) | 135.8 (+10.2) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2024 | EVAN 78 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#207) | -7.7 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#201) | -1.33 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#205) | -1.35 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#221) | 0.435 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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