Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -500 EVAN +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -11.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -9.1 (-2.1) | 135.0 (-2.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -9.6 (-2.6) | 134.3 (-1.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -9.3 (-2.3) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -10.2 (-3.2) | 135.5 (-2.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2024 | EVAN 78 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#156) | -8.0 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#189) | -1.76 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#177) | -2.12 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#227) | 0.446 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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