Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -133 EVAN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -0.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.1 (-1.1) | 142.9 (-17.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.8 (-1.8) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -0.5 (-0.5) | 140.3 (-15.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -0.7 (-0.3) | 141.1 (-16.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2024 | EVAN 78 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-14 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#275) | -2.3 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#292) | 0.38 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#273) | 0.15 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#281) | 0.524 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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