Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +105 VAL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -1.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -1.4 (+8.6) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -1.2 (+8.8) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -1.0 (+9.0) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -0.4 (+9.6) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2024 | EVAN 78 – 75 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#261) | -3.9 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#235) | -0.66 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#231) | -0.95 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#239) | 0.448 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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