Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN -300 VAL +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -9.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -6.3 (-3.3) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -6.1 (-3.1) | 142.4 (+10.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -6.1 (-3.1) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -5.7 (-2.7) | 138.9 (+14.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#190) | -7.1 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#180) | -1.21 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#208) | -1.09 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#148) | 0.445 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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