Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -185 SBU +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -5.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -6.0 (+7.0) | 141.8 (-12.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.9 (+7.1) | 139.3 (-10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.1 (+7.9) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.3 (+7.7) | 142.4 (-13.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SBU 73 – 69 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#109) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#85) | 0.12 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#95) | 0.28 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#61) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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