Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -102 GMU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -3.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.1 (-1.9) | 137.9 (+12.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.1 (-0.9) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.0 (-1.0) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.5 (-0.5) | 141.6 (+8.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SBU 73 – 69 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 17-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#151) | 7.4 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#127) | 2.30 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#123) | 2.64 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#102) | 0.614 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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