Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SBU +100 GMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -1.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -0.9 (+3.1) | 130.7 (+11.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -2.4 (+1.6) | 132.0 (+10.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -0.0 (+4.0) | 132.7 (+9.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.2 (+4.2) | 134.3 (+7.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#165) | 3.2 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#194) | 0.58 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#170) | 0.63 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#203) | 0.563 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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