Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -138 SBU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.8 (+7.2) | 134.5 (-5.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.0 (+7.0) | 133.4 (-4.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.8 (+7.2) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.8 (+7.2) | 134.6 (-5.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SBU 73 – 69 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#98) | 7.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#78) | 0.80 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#86) | 0.92 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#66) | 0.541 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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