Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -120 GMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +13 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -2.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.2 (-15.2) | 130.3 (+6.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.8 (-14.8) | 129.8 (+7.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -1.8 (-14.8) | 131.4 (+5.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -1.9 (-14.9) | 132.6 (+4.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SBU 63 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SBU 73 – 69 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#86) | 7.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#73) | 1.16 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#74) | 2.27 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#69) | 0.562 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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