Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -162 SBU +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -4.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.6 (-9.6) | 138.4 (-18.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.3 (-9.3) | 136.8 (-16.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -4.3 (-10.3) | 139.1 (-19.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.9 (-9.9) | 140.7 (-20.7) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | GMU 71 – 58 SBU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | GMU 77 – 73 SBU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | GMU 75 – 62 SBU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GMU 69 – 60 SBU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | SBU 73 – 69 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 17-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#95) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#80) | -0.03 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#88) | 0.12 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#51) | 0.513 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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