Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | URI -142 JOES +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +6 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | URI -4.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -3.5 (-9.5) | 135.2 (-19.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -3.4 (-9.4) | 135.8 (-19.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -3.7 (-9.7) | 133.6 (-17.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -3.0 (-9.0) | 134.9 (-18.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | JOES 91 – 74 URI |
| Jan 4, 2024 | URI 78 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 2, 2023 | JOES 64 – 50 URI |
| Mar 5, 2022 | JOES 70 – 60 URI |
| Jan 13, 2022 | URI 75 – 64 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | 1.0 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#149) | 0.65 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#138) | 0.68 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#147) | 0.537 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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