Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -163 URI +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +14 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -5.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -4.5 (+9.5) | 143.3 (-29.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -3.7 (+10.3) | 142.2 (-28.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.5 (+8.5) | 143.9 (-29.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -5.1 (+8.9) | 144.5 (-30.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JOES 61 – 55 URI |
| Mar 6, 2025 | JOES 91 – 74 URI |
| Jan 4, 2024 | URI 78 – 74 JOES |
| Mar 5, 2022 | JOES 70 – 60 URI |
| Jan 13, 2022 | URI 75 – 64 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#190) | -2.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#209) | -0.62 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#207) | -0.71 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#192) | 0.476 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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