Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -750 URI +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +17 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -8.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -9.1 (+7.9) | 149.0 (+16.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -9.3 (+7.7) | 151.4 (+13.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -9.1 (+7.9) | 148.4 (+16.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.5 (+8.5) | 149.2 (+15.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JOES 61 – 55 URI |
| Jan 4, 2024 | URI 78 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 2, 2023 | JOES 64 – 50 URI |
| Mar 5, 2022 | JOES 70 – 60 URI |
| Jan 13, 2022 | URI 75 – 64 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#77) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#94) | 0.38 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#89) | 0.50 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#77) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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