Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | URI +205 JOES -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -8.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -9.1 (+13.1) | 143.0 (+9.0) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -7.4 (+11.4) | 147.4 (+4.6) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.0 (+12.0) | 143.0 (+9.0) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.4 (+12.4) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JOES 61 – 55 URI |
| Mar 6, 2025 | JOES 91 – 74 URI |
| Feb 2, 2023 | JOES 64 – 50 URI |
| Mar 5, 2022 | JOES 70 – 60 URI |
| Jan 13, 2022 | URI 75 – 64 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#231) | 9.4 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#235) | 1.79 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#221) | 2.68 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#238) | 0.551 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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