I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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89–48 on winners spread MAE 10.4 137 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ George Washington +4.5 156.9 66% 68–66 ✗
Rider @ Iona +15.1 145.4 91% 58–80 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +8.8 140.4 79% 62–80 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield -1.3 145.0 45% 58–72 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Sacred Heart +3.0 151.1 61% 69–77 ✓
Merrimack @ Canisius -10.2 126.8 18% 62–67 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +10.2 151.4 82% 65–75 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton -3.0 130.2 39% 58–56 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +7.2 152.9 75% 71–80 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +20.7 162.2 97% 65–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State -1.1 146.7 46% 81–73 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois -0.9 162.5 47% 84–70 ✓
Akron @ Kent State -5.8 174.9 30% 92–70 ✓
App State @ Texas State -1.4 131.6 45% 57–60 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +4.6 144.4 66% 69–68 ✗
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +5.8 143.2 70% 68–55 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +10.3 169.0 83% 99–82 ✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +13.8 145.7 90% 58–81 ✓
Colorado @ Houston +16.6 144.5 93% 62–102 ✓
Virginia @ Duke +11.6 144.3 85% 51–77 ✓
Seton Hall @ UConn +13.0 127.4 88% 67–71 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Rhode Island +4.3 138.0 65% 61–55 ✗
Iowa @ Penn State -11.1 146.8 16% 69–71 ✗
NC State @ Notre Dame -7.0 155.8 26% 90–96 ✗
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -4.5 160.2 34% 80–71 ✓
Boston University @ American University +3.5 149.5 62% 68–65 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross +3.1 148.5 61% 76–62 ✗
Fordham @ VCU +14.2 142.0 90% 63–82 ✓
Army @ Lafayette +4.8 147.1 67% 77–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +13.8 162.6 89% 64–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +6.2 144.2 71% 61–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +10.9 154.1 84% 64–69 ✓
Le Moyne @ New Haven -1.6 134.2 44% 59–66 ✗
Missouri @ Mississippi State -0.9 155.4 47% 88–64 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +3.9 148.3 64% 85–86 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell -2.7 149.4 40% 84–60 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +12.1 140.3 86% 60–74 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +2.9 156.8 60% 84–91 ✓
Louisville @ Clemson -3.0 147.2 39% 75–80 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -0.8 167.8 47% 87–81 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +7.8 144.5 76% 79–89 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +5.4 146.1 69% 58–71 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati +6.5 152.8 72% 68–91 ✓
Oregon @ Northwestern +6.3 142.6 72% 62–63 ✓
UCLA @ Minnesota -1.9 136.8 43% 73–78 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +16.2 151.7 93% 61–71 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +4.0 150.6 64% 92–75 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico +3.1 150.2 61% 76–81 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -3.3 159.0 38% 70–75 ✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay +1.2 144.2 54% 63–85 ✓
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green +6.0 155.7 71% 62–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Buffalo +8.6 154.1 78% 75–70 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill -1.8 128.2 43% 75–72 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +5.2 141.0 68% 61–84 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -2.0 132.1 43% 67–74 ✗
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T -6.7 163.3 27% 91–88 ✓
Campbell @ Towson +4.8 140.4 67% 67–71 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +14.2 147.7 90% 93–90 ✗
VMI @ Chattanooga +12.8 149.3 88% 79–86 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas +5.7 166.9 70% 79–84 ✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia +6.8 148.6 73% 63–75 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson -3.9 155.2 36% 63–78 ✗
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -5.6 156.7 31% 97–111 ✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +4.6 143.7 66% 67–42 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +0.0 157.5 50% 77–91 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +16.1 142.2 93% 54–76 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +1.0 160.3 54% 74–90 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +9.0 166.7 79% 95–89 ✗
Elon @ Monmouth +3.4 155.4 62% 57–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +11.1 158.5 84% 61–82 ✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +0.7 144.3 52% 84–76 ✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +10.2 142.5 82% 65–97 ✓
Utah @ Arizona State +6.7 156.5 73% 60–73 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +1.3 157.5 55% 82–79 ✗
South Carolina @ Georgia +13.7 165.0 89% 68–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +6.2 149.8 71% 82–73 ✗
Nebraska @ USC -7.8 148.9 24% 82–67 ✓
Wisconsin @ Washington +0.4 157.5 52% 90–73 ✗
Air Force @ Wyoming +23.2 141.3 98% 62–66 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville -6.9 138.8 27% 79–80 ✗
San Diego @ Portland +3.5 155.6 62% 74–87 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -11.2 153.9 15% 84–59 ✓
Richmond @ Loyola Chicago -8.5 149.8 22% 66–69 ✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +11.2 147.1 84% 70–74 ✓
Pittsburgh @ California +7.9 142.0 76% 72–56 ✗
Colgate @ Navy +8.7 143.6 79% 69–85 ✓
Toledo @ Ohio -0.6 159.8 48% 79–67 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant -1.8 136.4 43% 52–69 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton +2.8 148.6 60% 65–76 ✓
Portland State @ Montana +1.2 142.5 54% 68–74 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho +2.8 156.9 60% 76–67 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +10.8 149.4 84% 57–88 ✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky -3.6 161.3 37% 80–77 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +5.3 140.0 69% 70–89 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +15.0 141.2 91% 67–74 ✓
Kansas @ Arizona +9.0 149.8 79% 61–84 ✓
Texas @ Texas A&M +2.7 169.9 60% 76–70 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -1.0 134.7 46% 74–60 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +7.3 134.4 75% 57–69 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer +0.1 154.1 50% 76–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian -10.6 137.4 17% 77–56 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois -11.0 148.1 16% 91–69 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +7.4 125.1 75% 50–77 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois +3.0 129.2 61% 79–43 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +6.1 141.4 71% 60–68 ✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -9.1 146.0 20% 75–69 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +8.7 146.2 79% 73–89 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -7.1 143.7 26% 85–73 ✓
Lamar @ Incarnate Word -0.6 141.2 48% 60–72 ✗
Delaware @ Kennesaw State +9.9 151.5 82% 82–90 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +13.7 153.3 89% 63–96 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia -5.0 144.7 32% 71–79 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +7.7 158.7 76% 51–72 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +1.8 174.5 57% 79–76 ✗
Furman @ Western Carolina -0.4 150.4 49% 67–86 ✗
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley +13.8 143.7 90% 55–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Sam Houston +11.1 154.6 84% 81–86 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +8.7 159.4 78% 57–82 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +3.0 143.0 61% 89–88 ✗
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +4.0 155.9 64% 83–88 ✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling +6.2 136.3 71% 66–59 ✗
San Francisco @ Pacific +4.3 140.6 65% 72–61 ✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton +1.6 144.3 56% 61–82 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -3.9 159.0 36% 75–95 ✗
Brown @ Cornell +10.8 161.9 84% 80–86 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -5.3 153.8 32% 60–54 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +1.7 138.9 56% 61–64 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +9.4 159.8 80% 78–87 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -8.3 155.5 23% 66–63 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +0.4 157.5 51% 83–73 ✗
Oklahoma @ LSU +3.4 161.2 62% 83–67 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida +0.5 154.3 52% 85–61 ✗
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -3.2 140.0 39% 81–78 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +3.4 166.8 62% 71–69 ✗
TCU @ Kansas State -3.0 157.4 39% 77–68 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +17.1 151.4 94% 70–69 ✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.3 134.5 77% 59–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.