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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–13 on winners spread MAE 7.4 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic	+6.9	152.1	74%	73–77	✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern	-4.6	166.6	34%	84–86	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford	+5.7	157.6	70%	59–71	✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb	-13.4	144.7	11%	77–71	✓
High Point @ Presbyterian	-11.8	150.1	14%	79–73	✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut	+2.1	136.6	58%	78–80	✓
New Haven @ Wagner	+4.7	133.5	66%	62–65	✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill	+5.5	140.6	69%	77–103	✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University	+13.4	144.9	89%	56–73	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne	+6.9	143.5	73%	59–76	✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont	+9.4	152.2	80%	64–66	✓
Campbell @ Drexel	+2.4	144.5	59%	60–65	✓
Elon @ Towson	+4.5	144.6	66%	56–58	✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington	+13.1	145.2	88%	65–88	✓
Stony Brook @ Monmouth	+3.9	141.9	64%	69–82	✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary	+14.1	167.8	90%	77–84	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga	+4.5	156.2	66%	85–80	✗
Stetson @ Jacksonville	+5.4	139.3	69%	85–89	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida	-4.6	170.1	34%	70–76	✗
Delaware @ Jacksonville State	+6.5	132.4	72%	70–80	✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State	-2.3	160.2	42%	65–74	✗
Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech	+1.1	133.2	54%	70–72	✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee	+8.5	138.6	78%	67–77	✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky	+3.6	151.2	63%	70–93	✓
Michigan State @ Purdue	+5.0	143.4	68%	76–74	✗
Denver @ Oral Roberts	-5.5	159.3	31%	80–102	✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City	-11.8	148.6	14%	73–59	✓
VMI @ Samford	+18.2	152.9	95%	61–80	✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley	+14.4	150.3	90%	72–79	✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern	+8.1	152.7	77%	87–92	✓
Florida A&M @ Southern	+8.3	150.7	77%	82–71	✗
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+15.8	130.9	92%	47–67	✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	+3.4	156.7	62%	79–71	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood	+8.3	142.8	78%	71–67	✗
Morehead State @ Little Rock	+0.6	145.6	52%	76–70	✗
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin	+9.8	135.2	81%	49–64	✓
Wichita State @ Memphis	+0.2	144.5	51%	88–82	✗
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara	+11.6	149.5	85%	59–70	✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+3.0	156.2	61%	62–84	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis	-2.0	147.7	43%	77–73	✓
Portland State @ Montana State	+3.0	138.2	61%	69–84	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana	+8.4	162.5	78%	73–81	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+10.9	144.5	84%	58–78	✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	+1.1	163.5	54%	72–82	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech	+6.1	141.8	71%	81–85	✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston	+9.2	166.1	80%	67–100	✓
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M	+8.4	163.8	78%	76–85	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly	+5.3	164.3	68%	92–102	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge	-0.5	152.3	48%	68–67	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego	+17.7	148.3	95%	72–84	✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist	+5.0	129.3	67%	56–68	✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan	-12.1	166.2	14%	69–67	✓
Yale @ Cornell	-5.0	179.5	32%	69–72	✗
Quinnipiac @ Niagara	-8.2	136.4	23%	76–78	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.