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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–19 on winners spread MAE 9.7 45 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky	+1.4	152.8	55%	92–91	✗
Stony Brook @ Hofstra	+11.8	142.1	86%	58–67	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton	-3.9	157.5	36%	87–85	✓
Boise State @ Fresno State	-3.7	147.6	37%	69–53	✓
Villanova @ St. John's	+5.1	148.1	68%	57–89	✓
Duquesne @ Saint Louis	+19.0	165.8	96%	76–91	✓
Washington State @ Pepperdine	-6.7	154.1	27%	79–88	✗
Oregon State @ Santa Clara	+17.9	154.9	95%	72–93	✓
Baylor @ UCF	+2.6	165.8	59%	87–86	✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside	-4.1	157.6	35%	84–95	✗
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City	-2.9	145.6	40%	94–70	✓
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+13.0	157.8	88%	53–68	✓
Arkansas @ Florida	+7.7	167.3	76%	77–111	✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina	+8.8	152.7	79%	82–89	✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn	+10.1	155.7	82%	85–79	✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah	-3.4	157.7	38%	67–81	✗
Seattle U @ Loyola Marymount	+0.6	134.8	52%	71–66	✗
Tarleton State @ California Baptist	+8.0	141.8	77%	67–82	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield	-2.8	153.4	40%	88–87	✓
Nevada @ UNLV	-3.4	158.6	38%	83–85	✗
Grand Canyon @ Utah State	+11.1	147.3	84%	69–74	✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego	+10.0	162.0	82%	64–80	✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's	-3.5	145.7	37%	59–70	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine	+4.1	142.0	65%	60–64	✓
La Salle @ Davidson	+10.3	130.7	83%	64–71	✓
Tulane @ South Florida	+16.6	160.5	93%	62–90	✓
North Texas @ UAB	+5.5	138.9	69%	62–58	✗
Rutgers @ Maryland	+4.2	146.6	65%	69–65	✗
UIC @ Indiana State	-3.9	146.7	36%	63–79	✗
Quinnipiac @ Canisius	-8.7	137.4	21%	67–63	✓
Purdue @ Ohio State	-5.3	154.2	31%	74–82	✗
Murray State @ Bradley	+2.1	166.3	58%	78–87	✓
Rice @ Temple	+7.6	146.9	75%	80–74	✗
Memphis @ East Carolina	-7.5	146.6	25%	68–84	✗
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic	+7.3	153.3	75%	76–77	✓
Rider @ Siena	+17.0	135.3	94%	61–76	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield	+6.4	146.8	72%	69–47	✗
Merrimack @ Niagara	-8.0	127.1	23%	73–66	✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist	+6.7	129.5	73%	63–56	✗
Iona @ Manhattan	-4.8	160.3	33%	69–65	✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake	-5.0	133.6	33%	75–53	✓
Michigan State @ Indiana	-3.8	144.6	36%	77–64	✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville	-10.1	140.6	18%	81–67	✓
DePaul @ Marquette	+3.6	142.9	63%	62–51	✗
Belmont @ Illinois State	-0.5	152.8	48%	74–81	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.