Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | IU +142 MSU -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +13 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -3.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.8 (-11.2) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.2 (-10.8) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.2 (-10.8) | 142.9 (-1.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.8 (-11.2) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | IU 82 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#39) | 20.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#48) | 3.68 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#55) | 4.59 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#65) | 0.643 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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