Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | IU +145 MSU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -6.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -4.3 (+5.3) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -3.7 (+4.7) | 137.7 (-8.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -3.4 (+4.4) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.6 (+3.6) | 137.7 (-8.7) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | IU 82 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#98) | 15.0 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#68) | 1.70 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#67) | 2.39 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#83) | 0.576 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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