Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -298 IU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -5.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.5 (+13.5) | 143.7 (-2.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -7.8 (+13.2) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -7.8 (+13.2) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -7.6 (+13.4) | 142.9 (-1.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | IU 82 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#17) | 16.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#11) | 1.72 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.48 (#10) | 2.32 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#10) | 0.570 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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