Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | IU -200 MSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | IU -7.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -5.4 (+7.6) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -5.9 (+7.1) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -5.2 (+7.8) | 138.9 (+12.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -5.5 (+7.5) | 140.2 (+10.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#19) | 9.7 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#36) | 2.16 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#30) | 2.64 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#54) | 0.604 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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