Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -188 IU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -0.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.6 (+13.4) | 134.8 (+10.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.0 (+14.0) | 133.4 (+11.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.1 (+13.9) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.6 (+13.4) | 135.3 (+9.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | IU 82 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#43) | 13.8 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#41) | 2.36 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#38) | 2.88 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#40) | 0.596 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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