Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -800 IU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -10.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -11.3 (-15.3) | 147.3 (-9.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.5 (-14.5) | 144.7 (-6.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -10.4 (-14.4) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -11.6 (-15.6) | 145.9 (-7.9) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
| Jan 22, 2023 | IU 82 – 69 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#18) | 10.2 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#14) | 1.69 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#14) | 2.23 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#16) | 0.573 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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