Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +105 NEV -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -3.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -1.6 (+3.6) | 150.3 (+17.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.7 (+3.7) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.4 (+3.4) | 149.8 (+18.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.3 (+3.3) | 150.3 (+17.7) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | NEV 69 – 66 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | 8.5 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#120) | 1.55 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#124) | 1.88 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#123) | 0.575 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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