Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -250 UNLV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -7.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -6.7 (+3.3) | 137.8 (+2.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -7.4 (+2.6) | 137.5 (+2.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -7.6 (+2.4) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -7.0 (+3.0) | 137.8 (+2.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | NEV 69 – 66 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#42) | 7.5 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#11) | 1.54 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#19) | 1.74 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#23) | 0.580 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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